Luka’s Corner

There have been many interesting storylines in the NBA so far and the season is only about two weeks old. Individual accomplishments, team surprises, and overall basketball excitement have all been present thus far. These are a few that really caught my eye:

Overall Team Improvement

The league seems to be better from top to bottom this year. Of course, there are still the elite teams (Los Angeles, Boston, Orlando, San Antonio, Cleveland, and Denver), the borderline contenders (Portland, Dallas, Atlanta, and Phoenix), and the up-and-coming clubs (Miami, Chicago, and Utah). However, several teams have surprised many who did not expect them to even have a winning record to this point. These teams are Milwaukee, Sacramento, and Oklahoma City, who recently beat the Spurs in San Antonio. The fact that these young teams are overachieving makes the league that much more exciting, as you never know what will happen each night.

As a result of overall improvement in the league, there have been several upsets so far. For example, the Hawks’ handling of the Celtics in Boston (followed up by Boston’s loss to Indiana the next night), the Nuggets’ destruction of the Lakers, and the Oklahoma City’s victories against the Magic and Spurs in Orlando and San Antonio have all been shocking for NBA fans. Now, while these losses were not enjoyable for fans in Boston, Los Angeles, Orlando, and San Antonio, they were extremely positive for the NBA.

Electrifying Play by Electrifying Players

So far, the premier players in the league have all played to and even exceeded their potential. Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, and Kobe Bryant have all put up huge numbers, as usual, and done some remarkable things with the basketball. Electrifying plays by these electrifying players is what makes the NBA so exciting. It might sound corny, but because of these players, who are the best on the planet when it comes to the game of basketball, the NBA is truly where amazing happens.

To name a few, Anthony’s dunk against the Utah Jazz and Wade’s jam against the Cleveland Cavaliers were two of the most amazing plays in recent memory and what makes them special is that they were both done by two of the best players of the past decade. The two facials signaled to Paul Millsap and Anderson Varejao that the season has begun. Not to mention D-Wade’s game-winner against the lowly New Jersey Nets or Dwight Howard’s huge rejection on former teammate Courtney Lee, which deserve all the credit in the highlight reel.

What Happens Next?

Because the season is so young right now, you need time to see which teams are really the best in the league and which are just pretending. There are many questions right now because the current standings are so different from what everyone has expected. Can the Atlanta Hawks maintain their up-tempo game and stay at the top of the East? Will Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando be able to return to the top of their conference? Will the Thunder, Kings, and Bucks come down to earth? How long will Phoenix run the Western Conference? Can San Antonio, Utah, New Orleans, and Philadelphia rebound? The answers to these questions and more will be very interesting to see in the upcoming weeks. As the season takes its course, stay tuned because you will not want to miss anything.

This year, I am approaching my season predictions a little bit differently than what I have done in years past. Instead of publishing them before the season started, I waited for about two weeks to see what the teams would look like (injuries, rotations, etc.). This will enable me to make more accurate predictions. So, here they are:

Eastern Conference Champion: Boston Celtics

In my opinion, the C’s will reach the Finals more because of their competition in the East rather than by their own dominance. Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic seem to have dropped a level from last season after making some questionable summer moves. Both Vince Carter and Shaquille O’Neal have yet to show that they have enough left to bring their teams to the Finals. As a result, Boston is my pick.

Western Conference Champions: Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are by far the best team in the West. With Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Ron Artest, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, and the rest of the bench, there is no team in the league as deep or as talented as Los Angeles. I also cannot see the Denver Nuggets or San Antonio Spurs matching up with the Lakers in terms of size, length, skill, or depth, so the Lakers are hands-down going to the Finals.

NBA Champion: Los Angeles Lakers

My reasoning behind this goes two ways. First, the Lakers are a much younger team than the Celtics, giving them more energy going into the Finals. As a result, they will be more motivated as well, considering that it was Boston who embarrassed Los Angeles two years ago. Kobe and his crew will not forget this. Second, and more importantly, the Lakers are simply a better team than the Celtics. The C’s cannot match the Lakers’ depth, which is headlined by the starter-caliber Odom.

NBA MVP: Dwyane Wade

If the Miami Heat reach 50 wins this season, which is possible considering that the East lacks four potentially great teams (like the Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets, Blazers, Suns, or Mavericks in the West), the MVP should end up in the hands of D-Wade. Simply put, the Heat would be the worst 50-win team in the league and it would take another magical season from D-Wade to even get the team to the 50-win mark. Also, Kobe and LeBron have won the trophy the past two seasons and it is only fitting for it to fall in the hands of arguably the best player in the league this time around.

These are my season predictions for 09-10. Check back soon for my early season notes and thoughts.

The 2009 NBA Draft has come and gone, but it has not gone quietly. As usual, there will be prospects who will reward their respective teams and those who will disappoint. Here is my take on the potential rewards, busts, and steals in this year’s draft crop:

Rewards

Tyler Hansbrough: While many have criticized the Indiana Pacers for selecting the undersized power forward with pick #13 for that same exact reason, Hansbrough’s advantages should  not be forgotten. Hard-working players off the bench who can grab offensive rebounds and get to the line are indispensable. Anyone with the ferocity, determination, and ability to win that Hansbrough possesses will find a place for himself in the NBA, no matter his physical limitations. Look for “Psycho T” to establish himself as a dependable forward in the mold of a Leon Powe or Udonis Haslem.

Eric Maynor: Point guards who are not only quick or explosive, but make the right decisions, are hard to come by. Maynor, who was sometimes forgotten while playing for VCU, is just that type of point guard. He should fit in nicely as a backup behind Deron Williams because he has the ability to find open teammates and attack the rim. Expect averages of 8.0 PPG and 3.0 APG from Maynor off the bench and do not be surprised if you see the VCU product in crucial points of the game this upcoming season.

Busts

Hasheem Thabeet: Looking at the 7-3 center, the word fragile repeatedly comes to mind. Even injuring his shoulder during pre-draft workouts, Thabeet’s thin frame (only 263 lbs.) is just asking for an injury. And, while the big man out of Tanzania has proven that he can alter and block shots at the rim, he must learn how to consistently score if he wants to live up to the #2 pick. As of now, I do not see the offensively-challenged center acquiring a turnaround jumper or hook shot. Do not expect that Thabeet will reach the 10-point plateau anytime soon.

Stephen Curry: This might be surprising, but I predict that the Davidson guard will not even come close to his success in the college ranks. As a point guard and shooting guard for the Wildcats, Curry had the freedom to shoot whenever he wanted (he attempted nearly 2,000 shots in three years), which will not be the case on any NBA team. Also, Curry stands at only 6-3,  which is ideal for a point guard in the NBA, not a shooter. Just look at J.J. Redick, arguably the greatest shooter in collegiate history. He stands at only 6-4 and has been a bust for the Orlando Magic. Curry, like Redick before him, will prove that a great college player does not translate into a great NBA player.

Steals

Wayne Ellington: The former UNC Tar Heel was named the Most Outstanding Player of the 2009 Final Four, surpassing his former teammates, Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson. Both Hansbrough and Lawson were drafted ahead of Ellington, but Ellington’s game has a better chance of translating to the NBA because of his size (he is a 6-5 shooting guard) and ability to shoot from distance. Do not be surprised if Ellington does reach averages of 10.0 PPG and and 45% shooting from downtown for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Also, the fact that Ellington will be playing alongside a terrific passer like Ricky Rubio will boost his statistics. 

Patrick Mills: The point guard out of St. Mary’s proved himself on the biggest stage (against the United States’ national team in 2008), so nobody can doubt that he can play against the best. While he will not be given that opportunity in Portland because Steve Blake, Brandon Roy, and Jerryd Bayless occupy the guard spots for the Blazers, do not be surprised if Mills makes a name for himself in a few years for a different team.

Chase Budinger: The athletic forward will be given the opportunity to bring scoring to the Houston Rockets because the team is so depleted at the forward and center positions. Especially if Yao Ming misses time due to injury (which he usually does), Budinger, who averaged 18.0 PPG this past season, could prove to be a reliable scorer off the bench. He has the touch from outside and necessary athleticism in the paint to make a name for himself in the NBA. Considering that the 6-6 Chuck Hayes is Houston’s most consistent reserve, playing time should not be too elusive for Budinger.