Luka’s Corner

The US team finished their exhibition schedule against Australia on Tuesday, beating the Bogut-less Aussies 87-76 in Shanghai. While the US finished their exhibition schedule with a perfect 5-0 record, there were several troubling aspects in the Australia game (and the Russia game before that) that need to be fixed before playing a top-tier opponent like Spain or Argentina. Here are the two things that truly surprised me while watching the game:

Selfishness by the US

Throughout the game, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony, and even LeBron James at times were trying to take on the whole Australian team by themselves. They reverted back to what had plagued the team in recent international competition: selfishness. Watching the highlights of these warm-up games is much different than actually watching the whole game and I was shocked to see Kobe trying to beat one Australian after another to get to the rim, instead of moving the ball (like the Australians did to the US) and finding the open man.

For the past eight years now, it seems like if a team is "surprisingly" not backing down from the US and its famed superstars, then the United States reverts to just putting the ball into the hands of their best player and getting out of the way. This may work in the NBA, where isolations and simple pick-and-rolls are key, but international basketball (which the US has to respect and adjust to) is based around perimeter and inside passing. Although many are blaming the game on poor shooting, it is not a wonder that a team shoots poorly if they fall back on contested jumpers. In the first three minutes or so, Jason Kidd tried one or two backdoor passes to the wing players and they did not work. Australia packed in their five defenders to prevent any chance of penetration and that was where the game plan fell apart for America. No more back-door passes were attempted and the team reverted to Kobe’s or Anthony’s quickness. That will not bring home a gold medal.

Poor Defensive Execution

In past games, the US team remained strong on the defensive end. They allowed little penetration against Russia, Lithuania, Turkey, and Canada and even kept other teams’ three-point shooting at a very low percentage. However, against the Aussies, that defense did not look as confident. Australia guard Patrick Mills drove to the basket at will against the "quick" point guards on the United States, finishing with 13 points (Chris Anstey also finished with 13). Mills looked like he could do anything to the US guards, whether it was driving to the rim or posting them up for a turnaround jumper. This is not a comforting sign for US fans, who expected a team with Kobe, LeBron, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams (Kobe and Paul are All-Defensive Teamers) to be able to stop the opposing team’s guards, especially when these guards are not even Manu Ginobili and Jose Calderon.

The big men for Australia were also successful in stretching out the US defense by stepping out and hitting outside jumpers. When the Aussie guards successfully drove against the US guards, they kicked it out their forwards and, because Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh were unable to get out to them quickly enough, they burned the US team for more than 25 points. This is troubling because Howard and Bosh are considered to be two of the most mobile big men in the entire NBA. They are well-known throughout the league for their surprising quickness at the power forward and center positions. This was not the case in the final exhibition before the Olympics, giving US fans and US basketball plenty to worry about during the games.

Looking at the problems this past game, I do not believe that this is a "just one game" problem. Selfishness cannot be fixed quickly and it is also difficult to fix poor defensive rotations against a team without its best player (Milwaukee Bucks’ center Andrew Bogut). To add to the troubling signs, results have become closer and closer during the exhibition schedule. Following a 55-point destruction of Canada, the United States has beaten Turkey and Lithuania by 32 and 36, Russia by 21, and Australia by 11. The US desperately needs to reverse this trend during the games, especially when it actually plays against the world’s best teams (Spain, Argentina, and Greece) and not against a Turkoglu-less/Okur-less Turkey and a Bogut-less Australia.

In my opinion, Toronto was one of the NBA’s two Cinderella teams last season (along with Golden State), reaching the Playoffs with a 47-35 regular season record. Nobody expected a team with only one true star (Chris Bosh) to even contend for a division title, let alone reach the postseason, but they didn’t just contend for the Atlantic Division, they won it. At the end of the 07 season, Toronto had won the Atlantic by 6 games, proving that it was one of the best teams in the East. On top of that, during this offseason, Toronto has gotten even better. The Raps have added lethal shooter Jason Kapono of the Miami Heat and acquired the ultra-athletic forward Carlos Delfino from the Detroit Pistons (for two second-round draft picks). I think that both these deals will benefit the Raptors, but in different ways.

Kapono, the league-leader in 3-point FG% last season for the Heat (at 51.4%), will be looked upon to spread the floor for the other players and help develop Toronto into a three-point shooting threat. This addition will make it much easier for Bosh to dominate inside on a nightly basis, and will also create new driving lanes for T.J. Ford and Anthony Parker. Along with Andrea Bargnani and Parker, look for Toronto to become one of the league’s premier outside-shooting teams. I look for Kapono to maintain his solid stats from last season (expect 10.2 PPG and .478 from downtown). Delfino is a different kind of player from Kapono, with much more athletic ability and a habit to prosper in the open floor. He is a player that will benefit from Ford and Jose Calderon’s abilities to find the man running the court for an easy jam. The Argentinian did not have wonderful stats and did not receive much recognition in Detroit, but he is still one of the more underrated players in the NBA. Along with Bosh, he will help Toronto with its running game. With Delfino, I project stats of around 6.4 PPG and 3.8 RPG, along with around 1 steal per game, also. All in all, he should be having a much better season that in 07 (stat-wise, at least).

Toronto’s entire offensive scheme was designed around the multi-talented Chris Bosh, who is entering his 5th season in the league. He does a little bit of everything, with an ability to drive by and elevate over the defense, step out and hit the jumper, run the open floor, or simply find an open teammate. He is the reason why the Raptors reached the Playoffs last year, since he is unselfish and very passionate about the game itself. Along with Parker, CB4 was the team’s defensive stopper in the postseason, nearly averaging 2 blocks and 1 steal per. I think that Bosh will improve after his unsuccessful postseason experience last year, and will come into the 08 campaign very determined to get his team over the Playoff hump. Because of this, I expect his stats to be around 24.2 PPG, 9.5 RPG, and 3.1 APG, along with 1.7 BPG and 1 SPG. If he does improve like this, expect Toronto to reach the Playoffs (and maybe even win the first round). Besides Bosh, the Raptors’ only other go-to-guy last season was Anthony Parker, the former EuroLeague MVP with Maccabi Tel Aviv. After arriving in the NBA from Israel last year, Parker went right to work. He developed his jump shot even more, making him a shooting threat (while knocking down 44% of his 3s). These two guys brought Toronto into the Playoffs last season and look to do the same (if not better) in the 08 campaign. The Raptors have a bright future with Bosh, Parker, and a young group of guys surrounding them.

Predicted lineup:

C-Andrea Bargnani, PF-Chris Bosh, SF-Jason Kapono, SG-Anthony Parker, PG-T.J. Ford

6th man-Jose Calderon, 7th man-Carlos Delfino, 8th man-Jorge Garbajosa

Predcited stat leaders:

Points-Chris Bosh (24.2 PPG)

Rebounds-Chris Bosh (9.5 RPG)

Assists-T.J. Ford (4.2 APG)

Blocks-Chris Bosh (2 BPG)

Steals-T.J. Ford (1.2 SPG)

Final Prediction: Toronto will make the Playoffs with a 43-39 record.

As I watch the Playoffs, I notice that very few European players are playing a significant role on their NBA team. The few exceptions I’ve seen were Dirk Nowitzki against the Warriors, Andrea Bargnani against the Nets, and Sasha Pavlovic against the Wizards and Nets. This tiny number of European players has gotten me thinking about why such a large group make it to the NBA, but almost never

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