Luka’s Corner

Stepping away from the US team, one of the most interesting storylines of these games was how Ricky Rubio would play for Spain. Considered to be "the next big thing" by many scouts and often dubbed the Spanish version of "Pistol" Pete Maravich, Rubio is only 17 years old and will most likely apply for the NBA draft next year.

Looking at Rubio play against the United States in pool play and against Lithuania in the semifinal round (Jose Calderon sat out due to injury), one thing was very clear: Ricky Rubio is one of the best defenders in the world at this point and has a chance to be the best in the world in that regard, including the NBA. He is capable of pressuring the opposing team’s guards for a full 94 feet of hardwood and can disrupt everybody in the backcourt on rotations and pick-and-rolls. I have never seen a guard steal the ball the way Rubio has in these Olympics. When the opponent’s big man rebounds the ball in the backcourt and hands it off to the point guard, Rubio trails behind the play and either deflects the pass or steals it from the dribbler. That is extremely effective in disrupting the other team’s offense and, even if Rubio fails to steal the ball, the offensive player spends so much time looking for him that another Spanish player can easily steal the ball instead.

In these Olympics, Rubio has played against the best that basketball has to offer. Even against Team USA, Rubio was a pest against Chris Paul and Deron Williams, two of the best point guards in the world. Defending against Jason Kidd, Rubio used his superior quickness to really trouble Kidd. In the semifinal against Lithuania, Rubio had to go up against Sarunas Jasikevicius, perhaps the best PG in Europe. And, surprisingly, Rubio took the more experienced Lithuanian out of his game. He pressured Jasikevicius in the backcourt and gave him no space on pick-and-rolls, not to mention that he stopped the Lithuanian from scoring and handing out assists. Known for his leadership on the court, Jasikevicius was "bamboozled" (in the words of Charles Barkley) when matched up against Rubio.

I would compare Rubio’s defense to that of a Rajon Rondo or Delonte West, but two times better even at this point in his career. Like Rondo and West, he gives the dribbler no space in the backcourt, but he gets more steals than those two and is a higher-level pest. I look forward to seeing Rubio in the final against Team USA and in the NBA soon because he can achieve superstardom on the defensive end. If a team like Memphis or Seattle drafts the Spaniard, they will truly have a game-changer on their side.

With the opening ceremony kicking off tomorrow, the United States has completed all of its exhibitions and it is time for the real games to start (on Sunday against China). It is also time for my Olympic predictions:

Gold Medal: USA

The US team is simply too deep at every position to lose this time. They have regained their focus after consecutive international defeats and are poised for an Olympic run.

Silver Medal: Spain

Spain has proven that they can win on the international stage. They have Pau Gasol, Jose Calderon, and even Ricky Rubio this time around.

Bronze Medal: Argentina

Argentina is the defending Olympic champion, so they are intent on defending their spot as the best. Ginobili, the best non-American in these games, is the difference.

Team to Watch: Croatia

Croatia is a skilled team that moves the ball around well and finds the open shooters. Marko Tomas is their go-to-guy and Nikola Prkacin is their low-post threat. Remember that this team beat Spain at the European Championships in 2007.

The US team finished their exhibition schedule against Australia on Tuesday, beating the Bogut-less Aussies 87-76 in Shanghai. While the US finished their exhibition schedule with a perfect 5-0 record, there were several troubling aspects in the Australia game (and the Russia game before that) that need to be fixed before playing a top-tier opponent like Spain or Argentina. Here are the two things that truly surprised me while watching the game:

Selfishness by the US

Throughout the game, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony, and even LeBron James at times were trying to take on the whole Australian team by themselves. They reverted back to what had plagued the team in recent international competition: selfishness. Watching the highlights of these warm-up games is much different than actually watching the whole game and I was shocked to see Kobe trying to beat one Australian after another to get to the rim, instead of moving the ball (like the Australians did to the US) and finding the open man.

For the past eight years now, it seems like if a team is "surprisingly" not backing down from the US and its famed superstars, then the United States reverts to just putting the ball into the hands of their best player and getting out of the way. This may work in the NBA, where isolations and simple pick-and-rolls are key, but international basketball (which the US has to respect and adjust to) is based around perimeter and inside passing. Although many are blaming the game on poor shooting, it is not a wonder that a team shoots poorly if they fall back on contested jumpers. In the first three minutes or so, Jason Kidd tried one or two backdoor passes to the wing players and they did not work. Australia packed in their five defenders to prevent any chance of penetration and that was where the game plan fell apart for America. No more back-door passes were attempted and the team reverted to Kobe’s or Anthony’s quickness. That will not bring home a gold medal.

Poor Defensive Execution

In past games, the US team remained strong on the defensive end. They allowed little penetration against Russia, Lithuania, Turkey, and Canada and even kept other teams’ three-point shooting at a very low percentage. However, against the Aussies, that defense did not look as confident. Australia guard Patrick Mills drove to the basket at will against the "quick" point guards on the United States, finishing with 13 points (Chris Anstey also finished with 13). Mills looked like he could do anything to the US guards, whether it was driving to the rim or posting them up for a turnaround jumper. This is not a comforting sign for US fans, who expected a team with Kobe, LeBron, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams (Kobe and Paul are All-Defensive Teamers) to be able to stop the opposing team’s guards, especially when these guards are not even Manu Ginobili and Jose Calderon.

The big men for Australia were also successful in stretching out the US defense by stepping out and hitting outside jumpers. When the Aussie guards successfully drove against the US guards, they kicked it out their forwards and, because Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh were unable to get out to them quickly enough, they burned the US team for more than 25 points. This is troubling because Howard and Bosh are considered to be two of the most mobile big men in the entire NBA. They are well-known throughout the league for their surprising quickness at the power forward and center positions. This was not the case in the final exhibition before the Olympics, giving US fans and US basketball plenty to worry about during the games.

Looking at the problems this past game, I do not believe that this is a "just one game" problem. Selfishness cannot be fixed quickly and it is also difficult to fix poor defensive rotations against a team without its best player (Milwaukee Bucks’ center Andrew Bogut). To add to the troubling signs, results have become closer and closer during the exhibition schedule. Following a 55-point destruction of Canada, the United States has beaten Turkey and Lithuania by 32 and 36, Russia by 21, and Australia by 11. The US desperately needs to reverse this trend during the games, especially when it actually plays against the world’s best teams (Spain, Argentina, and Greece) and not against a Turkoglu-less/Okur-less Turkey and a Bogut-less Australia.