Luka’s Corner

The Nets main move of the 07 offseason was the re-signing of their star shooting guard Vince Carter. The New Jersey organization hopes that this move will get them even deeper into the Playoffs this season (the Conference Finals), since they truly believe that Carter is the leader of the team. I, on the other hand, think otherwise. As I have already said, I think that Carter is the reason why the Nets have been unable to move past the the 2nd round of the postseason in recent years. On paper, with Richard Jefferson and Jason Kidd, they should be contending for a championship year in and year out. But, Carter has changed his game so much lately that the Nets are unaware that it does not help their offensive scheme. He often settles for fadeaway threes when he should be attacking the rim. Now, we rarely see him going up in the air for creative finishes and explosive dunks. If he were to drive more, then Jefferson and Kidd would have even more space for themselves to operate and eventually score. That is why Kidd’s scoring average (only 13 PPG last season) and Jefferson’s have dropped so much lately.

The only other moves the Nets made were the releases of Eddie House and Mikki Moore to Boston and Sacramento. House’s absence will not be missed greatly in New Jersey because he received very limited minutes in 06-07, since his role was to play at the third PG position behind Kidd and Marcus Williams. Unlike House, Moore was a consistent contributor for New Jersey last season. He was their only scoring big man (other than the injured Nenad Krstic), and was even the league-leader in FG% (at .608). When New Jersey made the move with Moore, I immediately thought that it was know Krstic’s year to shine. Now, he has no one to compete with for playing time and the post scoring for New Jersey will mainly be coming from him. He will also have the rebounding load because of New Jersey’s lack of rebounding big men. Considering all this, I project his stats to be around 18.5 PPG and 8.4 RPG, along with 0.8-1 BPG (if he stays healthy).

Pros:

-The Nets have the most well-rounded PG in the league running their offense in Jason Kidd or, as we learned in the 07 Playoffs, Mr. Triple-Double.

-Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson form the most talented backcourt in the entire league.

-Nenad Krstic has the potential to be the league’s next dominant big man. Before his injury last season, he was already showing signs of great improvement, averaging a career-high 16.4 PPG and 6.8 RPG.

Cons:

-The Nets are mediocre at best on the defensive end, with Kidd as their only stopper on D.

-Even though Krstic is up and coming, the Nets still do not have anyone to carry the rebounding load, with their PG as their best rebounder.

-Carter’s game does not help NJ in any way, and it actually detracts the games of Jersey’s two other stars.

Predicted lineup:

C-Jason Collins, PF-Nenad Krstic, SF-Richard Jefferson, SG-Vince Carter, PG-Jason Kidd

6th man-Bostjan Nachbar, 7th man-Marcus Williams, 8th man-Jamaal Magloire

Predicted stat leaders:

Points-Vince Carter (23.4 PPG)

Rebounds-Nenad Krstic (8.4 RPG)

Assists-Jason Kidd (9.2 APG)

Blocks-Nenad Krstic (1 BPG)

Steals-Jason Kidd (1.5 SPG)

Final Prediction: The Nets will go to the Playoffs with a record of 45-37.

Out of all 30 NBA teams, the Boston management was the most active this offseason. They completely changed their roster from the 07 campaign, adding both Ray Allen on draft night and Kevin Garnett later on. To do this, however, the Celtics were forced to give up many young players (many underachievers), most notably Al Jefferson and Gerald Green to the Timberwolves. This does not minimize the upside this trade has for the Celtics, immediately transforming them from a lottery team struggling to win 20 games to a potential NBA champion. Both players (future Hall-of-Famers) bring experience and superstardom to an organization that had anything but over the past couple of seasons.

Allen, the best three-point shooter in the league, will instantly provide Paul Pierce and Garnett more room to operate in the paint by spreading the floor with his shooting. He will also receive many open looks (and mostly makes) from the two other stars because of their uncanny ability to get into the paint and find the open man. I expect Allen to average around 22-23 PPG with raised assist numbers (around 5-5.8 per) because of the possibility that he may switch to PG at times. Since the point guard position is not very deep, he will need to facilitate the offense and provide others with scoring opportunities (as well as himself).

The Big Ticket will also see his assist numbers rise from last season (to around 4.8), with many more options to pass to (Pierce and Allen) than in his days playing for Minnesota. He is one of the best passing and the best rebounding forward in the NBA, and a new team will not change that. The points will dip to around 19 per game because of the fewer looks between the three stars, while the rebounding numbers will rise to about 13-13.5 per because of the Celtics’ lack of rebounding big men. He may even have to play at the C spot for a duration of the season because of Boston’s need for rebounders. If this is the case, expect Leon Powe or Glen Davis to take over at the PF spot. Despite all these changes, KG will still remain the best stat-sheet stuffer in league, with a line of around 19.5-13-5-1.5-1.

While everyone is focusing on the Allen and Garnett deals, the most underestimated move the Celtics made this offseason was the drafting of Glen Davis from LSU. Many people slept on him on draft night because of his weight issues and injury the previous NCAA season. Despite all of this, he remains one of the most talented and powerful forwards in the 07 draft. In my opinion, if he loses around 10-15 pounds prior to the season, he will become the Celtics go-to-guy off the bench. I predict that his stats will shape up to be around 8.5 PPG and 5.8 RPG in his rookie season.

Pros:

-The Celtics now have the most talented trio in the NBA with the Truth, Ray-Ray, and the Big Ticket all wearing Celtic green. Also, all three players are unselfish and play for the betterment of the team.

-The Boston defense will emerge as one of the best in the league. KG is dominant in terms of both blocks and steals (at 1.7 and 1.2 in 07) and Pierce remains at the top of the steal charts every season (1.7 for his career). Allen is also a solid perimeter defender (at 1.5 SPG last season) and Rajon Rondo, the predicted started PG, averaged 1.74 steals-per-48 minutes in his rookie campaign, a second-best for 07 rookies.

-Boston’s core is now one of the most experienced in the NBA, with Pierce entering his 9th season, Garnett his 12th, and Allen his 11th.

Cons:

-The Celtics are not very deep in general. Their list of subs (as of 8/12) includes Tony Allen, Glen Davis, Eddie House, Michael Olowokandi, Scot Pollard, Leon Powe, Gabe Pruitt, Brian Scalabrine, and Brandon Wallace.

-The point guard and center positions (the two most important in the game) are incredibly thin. The PGs include Rondo, House, and Pruitt, while the C position includes Kendrick Perkins (predicted starter), Michael Olowokandi, and Scot Pollard.

-The Boston trio is still unproven in terms of winning, with no conference or league titles between them.

Predicted lineup:

C-Kendrick Perkins, PF-Kevin Garnett, SF-Paul Pierce, SG-Ray Allen, PG- Rajon Rondo

6th man-Tony Allen, 7th man-Glen Davis, 8th man-Leon Powe

Predicted stat leaders:

Points-Paul Pierce (24.6 PPG)

Rebounds-Kevin Garnett (13.4 RPG)

Assists-Paul Pierce (5.8 APG)

Blocks-Kevin Garnett (1.8 BPG)

Steals-Ray Allen (1.3 SPG)

Final Prediction: The Celtics will make it to the postseason with a 48-34 record.