Luka’s Corner

After watching the first two games of the Finals, and seeing the Cavs being absolutely demolished on both ends of the floor, I thought to myself what Cleveland needed to do to get back into the series. They have still not found the answer offensively or defensively for the Big Three. Tony Parker went for a combined 57 points in the two games, Tim Duncan went for a combined 47 and 22 rebounds, and Manu Ginobili went for a combined 41 and 4 steals.

San Antonio also played excellent team defense, shutting down LeBron and controlling the paint. The Big Fundamental had 5 blocks in game 1, and Big Shot Rob had 5 in game 2. Parker and Ginobili have also controlled the outside, preventing the Cavs’ shooters from knocking down threes. To top it all off, a passing exhibition was put on display by the Spurs, running constant backdoor plays and outlet breakaways. Now…I am not saying that the series is over already (it will be in 6 games), because Cleveland just needs to do two things to win the next two games:

1. Run some plays for LeBron

The problem with Cleveland (among others) is that they have not realized that LeBron cannot just take on the Spurs defense by himself. It may have worked in Detroit, where James could simply attack the Pistons off the dribble from the top of the key. San Antonio, on the other hand, is a seasoned squad, possessing the league’s best team/rotating defense. To break it down, LeBron will have to call for the ball on the low block. Bowen is a great perimeter defender, but LeBron can easily overwhelm him down low, where he is just too big and strong for Bruce. With this strategy, even if LeBron is double-teamed, he can still kick it out, and this will set up Daniel Gibson and Sasha Pavlovic on the perimeter for some uncontested three-pointers (which they are comfortable shooting). Also, if LeBron is at the top of the circle, he should call Big Z over for a pick-and-pop play. This enables LeBron to take a slower guy off the dribble, such as Robert Horry or Fabricio Oberto, and get to the rim. Or, if he is doubled on the pick, LeBron can just kick it back out to Ilgauskas for an 18-footer, a shot which he is adept at knocking down.

2. Play a zone

It has become clear to everybody that Tony Parker and Tim Duncan have been simply too dominant on the offensive end. In my opinion, this is partly because the Cavs have not even tried playing a 2-3 or 3-2 zone (in addition to them being too good). The only defense they have relied on is a weak man-to-man, which is vulnerable to high isos for Parker to penetrate and low isos for Duncan to post up. Unfortunately for Cleveland, a zone will not completely stifle the Spurs offensively, but it will make them change their game plan. Parker will not be able to attack the rim consistently because the middle would be too congested for driving inside. Duncan would also find it more difficult to get to the rim for a easy dunks and finger-rolls because he would always have two Cavs checking on him. The only setback is that the Spurs’ shooters would be left wide open. This, however, is a better scenario then having Parker scorch you for 30 and have Duncan dominate inside (again). I would rather see Brent Barry or Michael Finley beat my team in the Finals with three-pointers.

If the Cavs do these two things, there is a greater chance that they will come back to San Antonio with two victories. Although I do not think they will win the series, Cleveland should make the series competitive once again at home, especially if LeBron finds a way to dominate (like he did in game 5 against Detroit). They are so much better as a team when LBJ has a good offensive night, and he will need at least two of those to make the Finals not seem like a series rout.

The San Antonio Spurs come into the Finals by defeating Denver in five games, Phoenix in six, and Utah in five. It is impressive to reach the Finals at all, but when you play (and beat) teams like the Spurs have in the Playoffs, it makes the feat even more impressive. The Nuggets were arguably one of the best sixth-seeds in history, with a core of Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, and Marcus Camby. Despite all this, the Spurs beat them in five. The Suns were what many thought sure Finals winners, with a team of Steve Nash, Raja Bell, Shawn Marion, and Amare Stoudemire. Anyway, San Antonio dominated the series and won in six. Utah was the winner of the Northwest and is perhaps the team of the future, with a nucleus of Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, and Mehmet Okur. Even with all this talent going against them, the Spurs still won in five. It is this dominance in the postseason, along with three other keys to victory, that will decide the outcome of the Finals. Here they are:

1. The Big Three

Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker have carried the Spurs all postseason (and regular season, for that matter). They are the most dominant trio of players in the league, despite the fact that Iverson, Anthony, and Camby also form a great trio for Denver. Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker, unlike the Nuggets three, have shown they can win on a consistent basis, during the season and in the Playoffs. When one or two of the three Spurs is struggling in a game, the other one always steps out. One of the main reasons why the big three are so lethal to opposing teams is that they can beat you in many different ways. Duncan can kill you from down low with deadly accurate hooks and bank shots, while also dominating the game with quick kick-outs to open Spurs shooters (Bruce Bowen, Brent Barry, and Michael Finley). Parker can slash to the rim and shoot floaters over the defense, or can run a one-on-two fast break and get to the line. Ginobili can do a little bit of everything. He can cut inside for easy layups and and-ones, but can also step back and drain the three. If these three guys work together and spread the floor for each other, San Antonio will cruise to four easy victories.

2. Defense

San Antonio is by far the best team defense in the NBA. Unlike the Pistons in the Eastern Conference, they will not be afraid of stepping in the lane to help on LeBron, which will make it very difficult for him to get to the rim. Duncan is a superb shot-blocker and Ginobili has quick hands, which make it easy for him to get steals. But, the main reason why LeBron will have a more difficult time scoring is Bruce Bowen. Bowen is not a guy who prevents you from scoring thirty points (although he has done it in the past). He is a guy who makes every single one of those thirty points seem like the hardest point ever scored in a basketball game. He is a constant hustler and makes you work for every drive, shot, and pass. Another reason why San Antonio will dominate Cleveland defensively is their ability to slow the game down and prevent fast-break points. As witnessed in the Phoenix series, the Spurs do not need to speed up the tempo to win. This, in turn, will destroy Cleveland’s chances because the Cavs are at their best when they run in the open floor. When playing against San Antonio, LeBron will have trouble getting fast break dunks and layups (which is one of the reasons why Detroit was eliminated).

3. Crunch Time Options

When a game is close in the fourth quarter, San Antonio is known to always stay calm, whatever the situation. They have so many offensive (Duncan, Ginobli, Parker, and Robert Horry) and defensive options (Bowen, Ginobili, and Duncan), which makes beating down the stretch nearly impossible. In addition, Gregg Popovich never chokes under pressure and he always knows where to go when he needs a basket or a stop. There will be no re-run of LeBron’s performance in game 5 (simply unbelievable) because San Antonio will look to get the ball out of his hands late in the game. They will tempt him by leaving players like Sasha Pavlovic or Donyell Marshall open on the perimeter, which will force him to think about whether he wants to shoot or pass. Also the Spur double teams will come quicker. They will trap at half-court when Lebron has the ball to dare the other Cavs to shoot the ball late in the fourth. I truly think that San Antonio, unlike Detroit, will be able to accomplish this defensive feat and, if they do so, the game will be their’s for the taking in the final seconds.

San Antonio, with their unlimited Finals experience, knows how to take advantage of all of their options on both sides of the floor. They always play their game and prevent opponents from playing theirs, enabling them to win so many games. Cleveland does not yet understand that they will run into even more trouble against the Spurs than with the Pistons. San Antonio is more consistent in the postseason and their team chemistry always stays strong. Whether they lose by thirty in one game or win by fifty in another, they always prepare the same way for the next one.

Now that Detroit has lost in the Conference Finals to Cleveland (I was outraged when it happened), I am forced to change my pick to win the Finals. They were my pick for champion and it really seemed that they were on the right track entering the series versus Cleveland. They had swept Orlando, dominated Chicago, and won the first two games at home. But, somehow, they just lost all that momentum (I’ll write about their team chemistry later on) after losing two in Cleveland.

Then, LeBron took over in Detroit and Daniel Gibson played well in Cleveland to ice the series. Really, Detroit was outplayed in all six games of the series, but Cleveland was not able to take full advantage in games 1 and 2. All I have to say is hats off to Cleveland for coming in focused and prepared to play. They definitely deserved to win. Anyway, I have a new pick to win the Finals:

San Antonio over Cleveland in 6 games